Highlights

• • Market implies home win ~59%, but our parity-based estimate is ~52%
• • Home fair odds (1.923) are well above the offered 1.69, producing negative EV

Pros

• + Slight home-edge hypothesis supports a modestly higher true probability for the home player
• + Clear, simple data set with identical records reduces the chance of hidden variance

Cons

• - No H2H, injury, or deeper matchup data available to uncover undervalued nuances
• - Market contains vig and likely short-term biases that compress value in both directions

Details

Both players show near-identical profiles in the provided records (10-21, 31 matches, similar recent results on hard and clay) and there is no H2H or injury information to create a clear edge. The market prices the home player at 1.69 (implied ~59.2%) and the away at 2.06 (implied ~48.5%), but given the parity in form and experience the realistic win probability for the home player is materially lower than the market implies. We estimate a true probability for Ilinca Dalina Amariei of ~52% (0.520) — a modest home edge given names and surface exposure but not enough to justify backing at 1.69. At our estimate the fair decimal would be ~1.923, which is well above the offered 1.69, producing a negative EV (EV = 0.52*1.69 - 1 = -0.121). The away player at 2.06 would have EV = 0.48*2.06 - 1 = -0.011 (also negative). Because neither side offers positive expected value at the current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical season records and recent results in the provided data
• • Market strongly favors home at 1.69 (implied ~59%), which appears overstated versus parity-based estimate
• • No injury or H2H information available to justify the market gap