Highlights

• • Market implies ~74.1% for Daniel (1.35); our estimate is ~72%
• • Imanol appears less experienced on grass, but the edge isn't large enough to justify backing Daniel at current odds

Pros

• + Daniel's broader match experience and explicit grass exposure support him as favorite
• + Market consensus aligns with surface-based advantage

Cons

• - The market price is slightly too short versus our estimated probability, producing negative EV
• - Limited direct grass-form data and small sample sizes increase uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Away/Daniel 1.35, implied ~74.1%) to our assessment based on the provided player profiles and surface. Daniel Rincon has substantially more match volume (69 matches, 38-30) and explicit grass experience, while Imanol Lopez Morillo's profile shows play primarily on clay and hard with no grass listed. On paper that gives Daniel a surface and experience edge, but the available results are recent clay events for both and do not indicate a decisive gap. We estimate Daniel's true win probability at 72%, which is below the market-implied 74.1%, so the current moneyline does not represent positive expected value. To back the favorite at current prices would produce a small negative ROI, therefore we recommend no bet at these odds.

Key factors

• • Surface is grass; Daniel has recorded grass matches while Imanol's profile lacks grass experience
• • Daniel has greater match volume and a slightly larger sample size (69 vs 35 matches)
• • Market-implied probability (74.1%) slightly exceeds our estimated true probability (72%)