Highlights

• • Book implied probability: ~87.9% (1.138)
• • Our estimated fair price: ~1.667 (implied probability 60%)

Pros

• + Imanol has a positive career win record and some experience
• + Current market clearly views him as heavy favorite

Cons

• - Available data does not justify the market's ~88% implied chance
• - No information on the opponent to explain the large market gap

Details

The market prices Imanol Lopez Morillo at 1.138 (implied probability ~87.9%). From the available research we only have Imanol's career record (166-139, ~54% career win rate) and a couple of recent mixed results; there is no opponent data provided to justify a near-88% true win probability. Conservatively adjusting for some match experience and likely favoritism we estimate Imanol's true win probability around 60%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.667, far above the current 1.138 quote, producing a strongly negative expected value. Because the bookmaker's price implies a substantially higher chance than we estimate, there is no value on the home moneyline at current prices.

Key factors

• • Imanol's career win rate ~54% (166-139) — baseline competence but not dominance
• • Recent form appears mixed in the limited match notes provided
• • Market-implied probability (87.9% at 1.138) is far above what available data supports