Ines Murta vs Harmony Tan

Highlights

• • Market-implied Murta win prob ≈13.5%; we estimate ≈20%
• • At 7.43, Murta needs only ~13.45% true chance to be profitable; our estimate gives ~48.6% ROI

Pros

• + Very large decimal price on the underdog creates clear positive EV if our probability assessment is reasonable
• + Available data shows parity between players, which contradicts the market's extreme favoritism

Cons

• - Research is limited and missing key contextual items (match surface, H2H details, up-to-date injury/status)
• - If external facts not in the research (e.g., recent injury to Murta or a dominant H2H record for Tan) exist, the market price may be justified

Details

We compare market prices to what the available research supports. The market heavily favors Harmony Tan at 1.098 (implied ~91.1%) and prices Ines Murta at 7.43 (implied ~13.5%). The supplied profiles show both players with essentially identical recent records (10-21) and similar surface exposure; there is no injury, dominant form signal, or H2H evidence in the research that justifies a near-certain favorite. Given parity in the documented data, the market appears to overstate Tan's win probability. Conservatively estimating Murta's true chance at 20% (reflecting equal records and uncertainty), the 7.43 price yields expected value: EV = 0.20 * 7.43 - 1 = +0.486 (48.6% ROI). The market only requires Murta to have >13.45% chance to be +EV at 7.43, which is substantially lower than our 20% estimate. Because the research lacks any clear advantage for Tan, we identify value on the underdog at the quoted price, while acknowledging uncertainty from missing contextual data (surface for this match, recent physical status, and any direct H2H).

Key factors

• • Both players show identical 10-21 records in supplied research — no clear form edge
• • Market implies Murta only ~13.5% chance vs our conservative ~20% estimate
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage presented in the research to justify heavy favorite