Ingrid Gamarra Martins / Laura Pigossi vs Emily Appleton / Isabelle Haverlag
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on the home moneyline (1.952) based on a 53% estimated win probability, producing ~3.5% ROI versus the market price; the edge is modest and uncertainty is high.
Highlights
- • Market-implied home probability 51.2%; we estimate 53%
- • Positive EV on home at current price (≈+3.5% ROI) but narrow margin
Pros
- + Home price offers a measurable positive EV against our probability model
- + Both teams' comparable records reduce the chance of an overlooked heavy favorite
Cons
- - Edge is small and sensitive to small changes in the win-probability estimate
- - Both pairs show poor recent form, increasing match unpredictability
Details
We see a near-parity matchup on paper: both pairs show similar career records and poor recent form in the provided profiles, but the market prices slightly favor the away side (implied away probability ~55.4% vs home ~51.2%). We estimate a modest edge to the home pairing (0.53 true win probability) due to home-side factors (familiarity with venue conditions, reduced travel) and the complete lack of separation in form/records between the teams. At our estimate (p=0.53) the home price 1.952 yields positive expected value: EV = 0.53 * 1.952 - 1 = 0.035 (3.5% ROI). The away line (1.806) does not offer value at our estimated probability for the away side. Given the small but positive EV on the home moneyline vs the current price, we recommend the home side while noting the margin is narrow and uncertainty is elevated because both teams show comparable records and recent losses.
Key factors
- • Both pairings show nearly identical career records and poor recent form in the provided profiles
- • Market currently favors the away team; home price (1.952) implies ~51.2% — our estimate is higher (53%)
- • Home-side situational advantages (venue/location) give a small edge despite overall parity