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Iowa State Cyclones vs BYU Cougars play on 2025-10-25 19:30 in the NCAA (american football). Compare american football odds, line movement, and our modelβs edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 18.4%. Suggested side: BYU Cougars. Moneyline β Home: 1.69 (59.2%), Away: 2.18 (45.9%).
Our lean: BYU Cougars. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.69, Away: 2.18. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: BYU Cougars moneyline given current prices.
We view BYU as the better side despite the market favoring Iowa State at home. BYU enters 7-0 and is ranked, and an external projection gives BYU a 54.3% chance to win. The market moneyline (Iowa State 1.69 / BYU 2.18) implies BYU win probability of ~45.9%, creating a material gap versus our estimated true probability (~54.3%). Adjusting for home-field and travel, we still estimate BYU is the stronger team and the available decimal price of 2.18 offers positive expected value (EV = p * odds - 1 β 0.184). The spread and betting lines around +/-2.5 indicate a close game, so upside is moderate but the price premium on BYU represents value.
Summary: We recommend backing BYU at 2.18 β our projection (54.3%) exceeds the market-implied probability (45.9%), producing ~18% ROI on a 1-unit stake.