Highlights

• • Current market needs Nala to be ≥8% to be profitable; we estimate ~18%
• • Minimum fair odds at our estimate are ~5.556; current 12.5 offers a large margin

Pros

• + Very large gap between required breakeven odds and available 12.5 price
• + Ipek's recent form data in research undermines the short-price market assumption

Cons

• - No direct information on Nala Kovacic in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Ipek could still be a heavy favorite for reasons not included in the dataset; market may reflect additional info

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Ipek 1.04 -> 96.2%, Nala 12.5 -> 8.0%) to our assessment using only the provided research. The only concrete data available is Ipek Oz's profile showing a 10-21 record and very poor recent results, which undermines the market's extremely strong confidence in her. Given that Ipek's recent form is weak and the market only requires an 8.0% chance for a payout on Nala at 12.5, we assign a conservative estimated true probability of 18% to Nala winning. At that probability the fair value of a 12.5 price is EV = 0.18 * 12.5 - 1 = 1.25 (125% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum decimal price required to make a 1-unit stake breakeven at p=0.18 is 1/0.18 = 5.556, which is well below the current 12.5, indicating clear value despite limited information on the underdog. We remain cautious due to the lack of any data on Nala and the small sample on Ipek, but the market skew is large enough that even a modest chance for Nala produces positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Ipek Oz shows a 10-21 record and poor recent match results in the provided profile
• • Market-implied probability for Nala is only 8%, a low threshold for value
• • No public data on Nala increases uncertainty but also raises the plausibility she has >8% chance