Ipek Oz vs Federica Urgesi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Federica Urgesi at 2.79 because the market overestimates Ipek Oz; with an estimated true win probability of 48%, the away line yields ~+33.9% ROI.
Highlights
- • Home price 1.446 implies ~69% — seems overstated given similar player profiles
- • Underdog at 2.79 implies ~35.8% while we estimate ~48% true chance
Pros
- + Clear positive expected value at current widely-available price (2.79)
- + Both players' profiles and recent results provided do not justify the large favorite margin
Cons
- - Research sample is limited and shows little differentiating detail — uncertainty remains
- - Qualifying-level matches can be volatile and prone to upsets; model risk is elevated
Details
We find the market heavily favors the home (Ipek Oz) at 1.446 (implied ~69%), but the publicly available form and career summaries for both players are effectively identical (both show 10-21 records across clay and hard, similar recent losing runs). There is no clear evidence in the provided research that Ipek Oz holds a large edge over Federica Urgesi, so the market probability for Oz appears inflated. Given that both players have comparable surfaces played and near-identical recent results, a near-50/50 baseline is reasonable; we therefore estimate Urgesi's true win probability at 48% which makes the away price of 2.79 (implied ~35.8%) mispriced and offers value. Using the quoted 2.79 price, the expected value = 0.48 * 2.79 - 1 = +0.339 (33.9% ROI).
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and surface mix (clay, hard)
- • Recent form for both is poor and similar; no decisive edge evident in provided data
- • Market heavily favors the home at 1.446, producing a mispriced underdog at 2.79