Highlights

• • Normalized win probability for Marina Bassols Ribera ≈ 62.8%
• • Minimum fair odds for that probability ≈ 1.591, but market offers 1.513

Pros

• + Market consensus clearly favors the away player, indicating perceived strength
• + Book margin is modest; normalization yields a straightforward probability model

Cons

• - No external information on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H to identify mispricing
• - Available odds are shorter than our conservative fair thresholds, so both sides lack positive EV

Details

We normalize the book's implied probabilities (home 1/2.56 = 0.391, away 1/1.513 = 0.661) to remove the overround and arrive at estimated true probabilities of roughly 37.2% for Ipek Oz and 62.8% for Marina Bassols Ribera. With no external research available (surface, form, injuries, H2H unknown), we take a conservative stance and treat the market as reasonably efficient. At our estimated true probability for the favorite (0.628), the minimum fair decimal odds would be ~1.591; the available market price for the favorite (1.513) is shorter than that, producing a negative expected value. The underdog price (2.56) also fails to offer positive EV versus our normalized estimate. Given the lack of actionable edge and the market prices available, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities normalized to remove bookmaker margin (overround ≈ 5.15%)
• • No external data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H — we use a conservative, market-respecting estimate
• • Both available prices (1.513 and 2.56) produce negative EV against our estimated probabilities