Irem Kurt vs Alana Subasic

Highlights

• • Market implies Irem Kurt ~26.7% chance; we estimate ~35%
• • Current price 3.74 exceeds our break-even threshold of ~2.857

Pros

• + Large price available on the home underdog creates clear theoretical value
• + Research shows similar profiles for both players, weakening the favorite narrative

Cons

• - Research sample is limited and recent match details are incomplete, increasing model uncertainty
• - Market favorite may reflect unreported factors (fitness, head-to-head, tournament seeding) not present in supplied data

Details

We see a large market skew toward Alana Subasic (1.237 decimal, implied ~80.8%) while the research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surfaces played (clay, hard) and no injury information. The market prices Irem Kurt at 3.74 (implied ~26.7%), which we view as too low given the comparable profiles and limited form separation in the supplied data. Conservatively estimating Kurt's true win probability at 35% (higher than the market-implied 26.7%) yields positive expected value at the current 3.74 price (EV = 0.35 * 3.74 - 1 ≈ 0.309). Key contributors to our estimate are identical overall records, matching surface experience, and lack of any research evidence showing a clear superiority for Subasic that would justify the heavy favorite price.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records in the provided data (10-21), suggesting parity
• • Surfaces played match (clay, hard) in the research — no clear surface edge identified
• • Market heavily favors the away player (implied ~80.8%) despite limited research evidence for such a gap