Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~85.1%; our estimate: 89.0%
• • Positive EV at current odds (EV ≈ 0.046 per 1 unit staked)

Pros

• + Strong edge from experience and career win base
• + Opponent profile (inexperienced, losing recent record) increases upset improbability

Cons

• - Edge margin is modest — single-match variance can wipe out gains
• - Limited granular info on current fitness or last-minute withdrawal risk

Details

We see clear value backing Anna Kartseva at the current price. The market price of 1.175 implies an implied win probability of ~85.1%, while our assessment — driven by Kartseva's vast experience (1000+ matches) and winning professional background versus Irem Kurt's limited 31-match sample and 10-21 record — places her true win probability materially higher at 89.0%. Both players have experience on hard and clay, so surface does not materially narrow the gap. Recent results shown indicate Kurt has struggled for consistent wins, while Kartseva's durability and depth of match experience greatly reduce upset risk in a quarterfinal. The break-even probability at the quoted odds is 85.1% (1/1.175); our 89.0% estimate produces a positive expected value of ~4.6% on a 1-unit stake. We therefore recommend backing the away favorite (Anna Kartseva) at current prices.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Kartseva has 1000+ career matches versus Kurt's ~31
• • Recent form and win-loss trends favor the veteran; Kurt's overall 10-21 record shows inconsistency
• • Surface experience overlap (both have played hard and clay) reduces surface-driven upset chances