Highlights

• • Home implied probability (market) ~29.2% vs our estimated 40%
• • Positive EV at current home price: +0.372 per 1 unit staked

Pros

• + Strong value gap between market price and our conservative probability estimate
• + No research evidence from the supplied sources to justify heavy favorite status

Cons

• - Limited data in the research — identical records limit discriminatory power of the model
• - Risk that unreported factors (seedings, in-tournament form, or recent fitness) materially favor the away player

Details

We see both players' publicly available profiles showing identical career spans and an identical 10-21 win-loss record with play on clay and hard; there is no research evidence (injuries, superior recent form, or H2H) to justify the market's heavy favoritism of Alana Subasic at decimal 1.274 (implied ~78%). Given the symmetry in the available data and the lack of a clear edge, we assign a materially higher true chance to the underpriced home player Irem Kurt than the market does. Comparing probabilities: market-implied probability for Irem Kurt is ~29.2% (1/3.43) while our estimated true probability is 40%, producing positive value at the current home price. Using the current decimal odds of 3.43, EV = 0.40 * 3.43 - 1 = +0.372 (37.2% ROI), so the home side represents value versus the published price.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical 10-21 career records and similar surface experience in the provided profiles
• • No documented injuries, H2H data, or recent-form advantage in the supplied research to justify the heavy away favoritism
• • Market-implied probability for the away player (~78%) is not supported by the available data, creating value on the home moneyline