Irem Kurt vs Daniela Darta Feldmane

Highlights

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for Kurt is ~83.2% (1/1.202), which is far above our estimate
• • To justify backing Kurt you'd need odds ≥ 3.03 based on our 33% win estimate

Pros

• + Market indicates a clear favorite which simplifies decision-making if one had complete data
• + If additional opponent information showed Daniela extremely weak, the short home price could be justified

Cons

• - Our EV calculation for the home side is strongly negative at the quoted price
• - Insufficient and conflicting data (no opponent info, Kurt's poor record) creates high uncertainty

Details

We see a large market lean to the home side (Irem Kurt) at decimal 1.202 which implies a market win probability of ~83.2%. Our independent read based solely on the provided research (Irem Kurt career 10-21 across 31 matches, recent stretch showing multiple losses) gives Kurt a materially lower win expectation (~33%). That disconnect creates two problems: (1) the provided data on Kurt suggests she is not a heavy favorite and (2) we have no data on Daniela Darta Feldmane to justify overturning the market. Using our estimated true probability for Kurt (0.33) the EV of backing Kurt at 1.202 is negative (EV = 0.33*1.202 - 1 = -0.603). Because the market price is so short and our information set is incomplete and conflicted, we cannot find a credible positive expected value side at the quoted prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Irem Kurt career record 10-21 (31 matches) suggests sub-50% baseline win rate
• • Recent match list in the research shows multiple recent losses and weak form
• • No data provided on Daniela Darta Feldmane — large information gap increases model uncertainty