Highlights

• • Market slightly favors the away player but prices are inside our required odds for value
• • Insufficient differentiating information in the research to justify an edge

Pros

• + Market prices are available and clearly show the favorite
• + Conservative probability estimate reduces chance of chasing marginal lines

Cons

• - Research provided contains limited, near-identical data for both players — high uncertainty
• - Current prices (1.787) are too short versus our probability estimate to produce positive EV

Details

We see the market favors Amarissa Kiara Toth at 1.787 (implied ~55.96% raw) while Irene Burillo Escorihuela is priced at 1.952 (implied ~51.21%). Both players' career records and the limited recent-match lines provided are essentially identical in the research set, offering no clear form or surface edge to justify a strong deviation from a roughly even match-up. After adjusting for the market overround and uncertainty in the sparse recent data, we estimate the true win probability for the market-favored away player at 54.0%. At the current away price (1.787) that probability produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.54 * 1.787 - 1 ≈ -0.035), so there is no profitable value to take at available prices. To be value-seeking you would need at least decimal 1.852 on that player (1 / 0.54). Given the lack of distinct surface, injury, or head-to-head evidence in the provided research, we recommend passing on a side here.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: Away 1.787 implies ~55.96%, Home 1.952 implies ~51.21%; total overround ~7.17%
• • Provided career records and recent entries are essentially identical for both players — no clear form advantage
• • No additional surface, injury, or head-to-head information in the research to justify a higher true probability than our estimate