Highlights

• • Research shows parity in form and surfaces between the two players
• • Current home price (4.78) exceeds our min required price (3.571) for positive EV

Pros

• + Clear quantitative gap between implied market probability and our conservative true-probability estimate
• + High decimal price on the underdog produces a solid ROI in our model

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited (no H2H, ranking details, or confirmed injuries), increasing uncertainty
• - Betting on an underdog in tennis carries higher variance; market may know information not present in the provided sources

Details

We find value on the home underdog (Irene Burillo Escorihuela). The provided player profiles show effectively identical recent records (10-21) and similar surface experience, with no injury or H2H data to justify the market pricing that makes Darja Semenistaja a ~84% favorite (1.191). Given the parity in the research, the market appears to be overstating the away's win probability; we conservatively estimate the true chance for the home player at 28%. At the current decimal price of 4.78 for the home side this implies positive expected value (EV = 0.28*4.78 - 1 = +0.338), so the underdog offers a favorable price relative to our model.

Key factors

• • Provided records and recent-match summaries show near parity (both 10-21) with no clear advantage
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard courts; surface exposure does not favor one side in the supplied data
• • Market odds (away 1.191) imply a probability not supported by the available profiles, indicating potential overpricing of the favorite