Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Darja Semenistaja
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given nearly identical profiles and no clear reasons to assign a >80% chance to the favorite, the home moneyline at 4.30 represents value based on our 40% win-probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Market heavily favors the away player (1.21) despite similar records
- • Home at 4.30 implies value if true win probability is around 40%
Pros
- + Large margin between market odds and our estimated fair odds (4.30 vs required 2.50)
- + Research provides no clear superiority for the favorite, supporting the underdog case
Cons
- - Sample of provided data is small and symmetric; hidden factors (fitness, matchup specifics) could change probabilities
- - High variance in tennis: single-match outcomes are volatile even when EV positive
Details
Both players' provided profiles show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history, with no clear form advantage for the away player that would justify a ~82.6% market probability. The market prices Darja Semenistaja at 1.21 (implied ~82.6%) and Irene Burillo Escorihuela at 4.30 (implied ~23.3%). Given the lack of distinguishing data in the research (matching records, similar recent results, no injury information), we assess the market has overreacted and is overpricing the favorite. We estimate Irene's true win probability at 40% (0.40). At the current home odds of 4.30 this generates positive expected value (EV = 0.40 * 4.30 - 1 = +0.72), so the home moneyline appears to be a value bet relative to the information provided.
Key factors
- • Profiles in the research show nearly identical 10-21 records and similar surface experience
- • Market-implied probability for the away player (1.21) is extremely high (~82.6%) with no supporting evidence
- • Underdog home price (4.30) offers substantial upside if true win chance ~40%