Highlights

• • Market underprices the away side relative to Kozyreva's experience
• • Required fair odds (2.222) are well below the available 2.64 price

Pros

• + Away contains a highly experienced player with a long positive record
• + Current odds offer a substantial edge versus our estimated probability

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific form, direct H2H, and surface-impact data
• - Some uncertainty in estimates due to incomplete recent-match detail for pair dynamics

Details

We see value on Maria Kozyreva / Iryna Shymanovich (away). The market prices the home pair at 1.417 (implied ~70.5% for home), which makes the away line 2.64 (implied ~37.9%). Our read of the research: Khromacheva and Rakhimova show limited recent success (poor recent win-loss notes), while Kozyreva has a very large career sample and a positive overall record, providing experience and stability in doubles. There are no reported injuries or withdrawals in the provided research to materially reduce the away pair's chances. Given the experience gap and recent form signals, we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 45.0%, which is well above the market-implied 37.9% and produces positive expected value at the available 2.64 price. Using that probability, the required fair odds are ~2.222, so the current 2.64 quote offers meaningful edge. We acknowledge uncertainty from limited doubles-specific data and missing H2H and surface-specific doubles stats, so we apply a conservative probability (45%) while still finding positive EV.

Key factors

• • Kozyreva's large career sample and positive overall record provides experience advantage
• • Khromacheva and Rakhimova show limited recent success in provided data (weaker form signal)
• • Market-implied probability for away (37.9%) is lower than our conservative true estimate (45%), creating value