Highlights

• • Modelled probability for away: ~61.9% vs market-implied ~38.6%
• • Minimum fair odds for positive EV ≈ 1.616; current 2.59 well above that

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at the quoted price
• + Away players show much higher career win rates in the provided data

Cons

• - Provided data are aggregate career records (not doubles-specific or surface-adjusted)
• - Market may be pricing partnership/doubles-specific info not present in research, so risk is elevated

Details

We compare the players' career win rates from the provided profiles as a proxy for likely match strength. Irina Khromacheva and Kamilla Rakhimova each show a 10-21 record (win rate 10/31 = 0.3226), while Storm Hunter and Laura Pigossi each show 559-507 (win rate 559/1066 = 0.5243). Averaging each pair and normalizing gives an estimated win probability for the Hunter/Pigossi team of ~61.9%. The market price, however, implies only ~38.6% for the away side at decimal 2.59, which presents clear value: EV = 0.619 * 2.59 - 1 ≈ +0.603 (60.3% ROI on a 1-unit stake) using the quoted 2.59 price. We note important uncertainty because the data are general career records (not explicitly doubles-only or surface-adjusted) and the market may be incorporating doubles rankings, partnerships, or recent match-level info not present in the research.

Key factors

• • Away pair have substantially higher career win rates (0.524 vs 0.323 each)
• • Market-implied probability (away 38.6%) is well below our estimated probability (61.9%)
• • Research data are career aggregates and may not reflect doubles-specific or recent partnership form