Irina Khromacheva / Nicole Melichar vs Magali Kempen / Katarzyna Piter
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The home price (1.301) is overpriced relative to the evidence; we estimate home win probability ~59% so there is no value at current odds.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability: ~76.8% from 1.301
- • Our estimated true probability: 59% -> requires ≥1.695 for value
Pros
- + Clear calculation shows market is pricing the home side much higher than our assessment
- + Research does not provide strong support for a dominant favorite, reducing confidence in the market price
Cons
- - Player data in the research is limited and somewhat uniform, increasing uncertainty in our estimate
- - Absence of H2H and pairing-specific doubles form in the research raises variance
Details
We compared the quoted prices to what the available player data supports. The market price for the home pair (Irina Khromacheva / Nicole Melichar) is 1.301 (implied ~76.8%). The provided player profiles show nearly identical, modest recent results and records across both teams with no clear superiority for the home pairing and no H2H or clear surface advantage in the research. Given the sparse and neutral evidence, we estimate the true win probability for the home team around 59%, which is far lower than the market-implied 76.8%, so the current home price is overbet and offers negative expected value. To be a value play on the home side the market would need to offer roughly >=1.695, well above the current 1.301. Therefore we do not recommend a bet on either side at the present prices.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home (1.301) is ~76.8%, higher than evidence supports
- • Player profiles in research show similar modest records and no decisive edge
- • No H2H or surface advantage information in the provided data to justify the heavy favorite price