Irina Khromacheva / Nicole Melichar vs Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi

Highlights

• • Home price 1.41 implies ~66.8% fair chance after removing vig
• • Our estimated true probability for the home side is ~60%, requiring odds ≥1.667 for +EV

Pros

• + Market offers a clear favorite which simplifies value assessment
• + No reported injuries or external factors in the provided research to dramatically alter probabilities

Cons

• - Both teams display weak recent records in the provided profiles, increasing outcome uncertainty
• - Insufficient evidence (H2H, recent team results) to support a contrarian lay on the market favorite or a back of the underdog

Details

We believe the market currently overvalues the home pair at 1.41. The available player profiles show both pairings with similar recent form and modest win rates on hard courts, with no clear injury or matchup edge evident in the provided research. The bookmaker-implied (vig-adjusted) probability for the home team is approximately 66.8%, while our assessment of the home pair's realistic win probability is closer to 60%. At that assessed probability the required decimal odds for a positive expectation are ~1.667, well above the current 1.41, so there is no value backing the favorite. Conversely, the away price (2.84) would require the away pair to have a true win probability above ~35.2% to be +EV at the quoted price; given the similar poor records and lack of supporting upside in the research, we do not find sufficient confidence to assign a higher probability to the away team that would create value.

Key factors

• • Both pairs show similar recent records and form in the provided profiles
• • Match is on hard courts (both teams have history on hard) with no clear surface edge
• • Market heavily favors the home side; implied probability exceeds our estimated true chance