Irina Khromacheva / Nicole Melichar vs Maria Kozyreva / Iryna Shymanovich

Highlights

• • Implied home probability (1/1.277 ≈ 78%) appears overstated versus available evidence
• • Required odds for home to be +EV are ~1.667 or higher; current 1.277 is far below that

Pros

• + Home pair is the market favorite and may have slight experience or pairing advantages
• + Match on hard/court types where both teams have prior activity

Cons

• - Provided records show very similar results for all four players—no clear performance edge
• - Current market price for home offers negative expected value versus our conservative probability

Details

We see the market pricing the home pair (Khromacheva/Melichar) very strongly at decimal 1.277 (implied ~78%). From the provided player data, both pairs show very similar recent records (roughly 10-21 type win-loss across hard and clay) and no injury or surface edge is reported. We therefore do not find a justification for a ~78% true win probability. Using a conservative, evidence-based true probability of 60% for the home team (reflecting a small edge for the home pairing but acknowledging similar form and results), the implied value at 1.277 is negative: EV = 0.60 * 1.277 - 1 = -0.234. To be profitable we would need at least decimal 1.667 (1/0.60). Because expected_value at the current market price is substantially below zero, we do not recommend betting either side.

Key factors

• • Both pairs have very similar recent win-loss records (~10-21) with play on hard and clay — no clear advantage
• • Market implies ~78% for the home team, which is not supported by the comparable player resumes and results
• • No injuries, surface advantage, or H2H data in the provided research to justify a large favorite bias