Highlights

• • Market implies 41.5% for away; our estimate is 42.5% → slight edge
• • Experience and larger historical sample for Storm lifts the away team's probability

Pros

• + Away side benefits from a substantially more experienced player in the provided data
• + Current decimal price (2.41) is marginally higher than our minimum required (2.353)

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to probability assumptions — high variance in doubles
• - Provided recent records for several players are limited and show mixed form, increasing uncertainty

Details

We believe Storm Hunter / Desirae Krawczyk represent a small-value play at the current away price of 2.41. Market-implied probability at 2.41 is about 41.5%, but a simple strength composite based on the provided player records and experience favors the away pair. Storm Hunter's career win rate (559/1066 ≈ 52.4%) and broad-surface experience tilt the matchup toward the away team, while the home combination (Irina Khromacheva ~32.3% and Nicole Melichar ~31.3%) shows substantially weaker recent win rates in the provided data. Averaging the provided player win-rates and giving weight to Storm's extensive doubles experience produces an estimated true probability of ~42.5% for the away team. At decimal odds 2.41 this yields a small positive edge: EV = 0.425 * 2.41 - 1 ≈ 0.024 (2.4% ROI per 1 unit stake). The margin is thin and sensitive to our probability estimate, but the current market price slightly undervalues the away team's realistic chance based on the supplied profiles.

Key factors

• • Storm Hunter's extensive match sample and above-50% win rate in the provided data
• • Home players Khromacheva and Melichar show much lower win rates in the provided records
• • Both teams have activity on hard courts, but experience gap favors the away pairing