Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~73.5% (1.36)
• • Our conservative true estimate: 58% → requires ≥1.724 decimal odds for breakeven/value

Pros

• + Lhomond has played on hard court before (1-1), so surface is not an obvious mismatch
• + Market views Lhomond as a clear favorite, which suggests public confidence if more data existed

Cons

• - Sample size for Lhomond is tiny and not predictive
• - No opponent data provided to justify the market gap — high information asymmetry

Details

We compared the market price (Isaac Lhomond 1.36 => implied ~73.5%) to a conservative estimated true probability for Lhomond of 58%. Lhomond's available profile shows only two professional matches (1-1) both on hard court — an extremely small sample — and there is no scouting or recent data on Evan Jarzaguet in the research provided. Given the sparse evidence, we adopt a conservative edge estimate (58%) that is substantially lower than the market-implied 73.5%, producing a negative expected value at the quoted home price. Therefore we do not recommend taking the favorite at 1.36 because the price does not represent value versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Extremely limited sample for Isaac Lhomond (2 matches, 1-1) — unreliable form signal
• • No information available on Evan Jarzaguet in the provided research
• • Market-implied probability (73.5%) is materially higher than our conservative estimate (58%)