Highlights

• • Home implied win % ≈81.3% vs our conservative away true win % estimate of 35%
• • EV on away at current odds: +0.365 (36.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Clear numeric edge between market implied probability and our conservative estimate
• + Simple thesis: heavy favorite not supported by the provided performance sample

Cons

• - Very limited data on both players in the provided research increases model uncertainty
• - Absence of any detail on Lukas Morand (form, surface record, injuries) means our estimate relies on conservative judgment rather than direct evidence

Details

The market prices Isaac Lhomond at 1.23 (implied win probability ~81.3%) and Lukas Morand at 3.9 (~25.6%). The only available performance data shows Lhomond has an extremely limited pro sample (2 matches, 1-1, both on hard) and does not justify an 80%+ true probability. Given the small sample size, lack of head-to-head or injury information on Morand, and no clear surface edge, we conservatively estimate Morand's true win probability at 35%. At decimal 3.9 that yields positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 3.9 - 1 = +0.365). In short: the market appears to overstate the favorite based on available evidence, creating value on the away price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (≈81%) is very high relative to limited evidence
• • Isaac Lhomond has only 2 recorded pro matches (1-1) on hard — sample size too small to justify heavy favoritism
• • No available data on Lukas Morand in the provided research, implying uncertainty that the market may be understating