Highlights

• • Home player has event familiarity and more recent recorded activity
• • Away would need >62.5% true probability to be +EV, which is not supported

Pros

• + Price (2.20) requires only ~45.5% implied probability to break even; we estimate higher
• + Becroft's recent matches at the same event suggest acclimation to conditions

Cons

• - Small career sample sizes and noisy match-level stats increase variance
• - No head‑to‑head data and limited injury/fitness info in supplied sources

Details

We find value on Isaac Becroft at 2.20. The market prices Dominik Palan at 1.60 (implied 62.5%) while Becroft is 2.20 (implied 45.5%). Comparing profiles from the supplied data: both players are hard‑court specialists with similar career win rates (Becroft ~12-10, Palan ~24-21), but Becroft has recent match activity at the Nakhon Pathom event (familiarity with venue/conditions) while Palan's recent results show consecutive losses and his last recorded matches were earlier and at different venues. Given the small samples and surface parity we conservatively adjust Becroft's probability above the market-implied 45.5% to account for home/event familiarity and slightly fresher recent form. Using an estimated true win probability of 52% yields a positive expected value at the current 2.20 price (EV = 0.52*2.20 - 1 = 0.144). We do not recommend Palan at 1.60 because Palan would need >62.5% true probability to be +EV, which is unsupported by the provided form data.

Key factors

• • Both players primarily on hard courts with similar career win rates
• • Becroft has recent activity at Nakhon Pathom (venue familiarity)
• • Palan shows recent losses and less recent activity in supplied data