Highlights

• • Skoog's experience and clay familiarity reduce true upset probability versus the market's view
• • Tian's small sample size and losing record suggest higher variance than the implied 84.5% market chance

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at current odds (EV ~0.334)
• + Surface and career experience tilt in favour of the underdog Skoog

Cons

• - Both players show mixed recent form; form swings increase upset risk
• - Tian is heavily market‑favored for a reason; absolute upset probability remains modest

Details

We estimate the market is overstating Tian Jialin's chance here. The book odds imply Tian ~84.5% (1/1.184) and Isabel Skoog ~24.0% (1/4.17). Reviewing the profiles: Skoog is a long‑tenured player with extensive clay experience and a large career sample (559-507) while Tian has a very small sample (31 matches, 10-21). On clay this experience and match toughness matter; Tian's record and limited history increase variance and make an 84% market probability unlikely. We conservatively estimate Skoog's true win probability at 32% (0.32). At the available decimal price of 4.17 this yields positive edge: EV = 0.32 * 4.17 - 1 = 0.334. The minimum fair decimal odds for this win probability is 3.125, so current 4.17 offers clear value. We note downside risks: both players show recent losses and form is mixed, so the pick is value-driven rather than a prediction of high certainty.

Key factors

• • Clay surface favors experienced, high‑volume players like Skoog
• • Skoog's large career sample and winning record versus Tian's small sample (31 matches) and 10-21 record
• • Market implies an extreme probability for Tian (≈84.5%) that looks overstated given available form data
• • Recent match results for both are mixed, increasing variance — market likely overprices short‑term signals