Highlights

• • Isabel's long-career win rate (~52%) vs Verena's ~32% over a small sample.
• • Current market price overweights Verena compared with available performance metrics.

Pros

• + High upside due to a large decimal price (3.85) relative to our probability estimate.
• + Significant experience gap favors Isabel in tight matches and mental moments in a semi-final.

Cons

• - Research shows recent losses for both players — short-term form uncertainty remains.
• - Limited head-to-head or tournament-specific surface performance details in the provided data increase variance.

Details

We find clear value on Isabel Skoog at 3.85. The market prices Verena Meliss as an ~81.5% favorite, but the underlying data in the research shows Isabel has a long, positive career record (559-507 over 1066 matches, ~52% career win rate) while Verena is early in her career with a 10-21 record (~32% win rate) across 31 matches. Both players have experience on similar surfaces, and recent results in the research show both with losses, so form does not justify such a large favoritism for Verena. Conservatively estimating Isabel's true chance at 40% gives a required fair price of 2.50; the current 3.85 price is materially better and yields large positive expected value (EV = 0.54 per 1 unit). We therefore recommend backing the home player because the market appears to be overestimating Verena relative to the available performance data.

Key factors

• • Isabel Skoog's extensive experience and overall positive career win rate (559-507) versus Verena Meliss's limited sample (10-21).
• • Both players show recent losses in the provided records, so short-term form does not strongly favor the market favorite.
• • Market-implied probability for Verena (~81.5%) is inconsistent with the career performance data, creating value on Isabel at 3.85.