Isabella Barrera Aguirre vs Madison Sieg
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Madison Sieg is the recommended side: the book price (1.08) underestimates her win probability in our view, producing a small positive EV (~3.7%).
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability: ~92.6% (1.08)
- • Our estimated true probability: 96% → positive EV at current price
Pros
- + Clear experience and results gap in Sieg's favor
- + Both players have recent hard-court activity, reducing surface-uncertainty risk
Cons
- - Small absolute payout due to heavy favorite status (EV per unit is modest)
- - Single-match variance/upset risk always possible in tennis despite disparity
Details
We identify clear value backing Madison Sieg. The market price at 1.08 implies a 92.6% win probability, but the available profile data shows a large experience and career-sample advantage (559-507 career vs 10-22 for Isabella Barrera Aguirre across a small 32-match sample) and recent match activity on hard courts for both. Given Sieg's long-term winning baseline, match experience in challengers, and the pronounced disparity in career volume and results, we estimate Sieg's true chance substantially above the market-implied probability. Using a conservative adjustment for variance and upset risk in tennis, we estimate Madison Sieg's win probability at 96%; at the current 1.08 price this yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.96*1.08 - 1 ≈ 0.0368), so the away side is a value bet.
Key factors
- • Large experience and career-win advantage for Madison Sieg (vastly more matches and wins)
- • Recent activity on hard courts for both players but Sieg's deeper career consistency
- • Market-implied probability (92.6%) is meaningfully below our conservative true win estimate (96%)