Highlights

• • Petkovic brings heavy experience advantage (1066 matches) vs Harvison's limited sample (31 matches).
• • Current odds (1.806) imply ~55.4% but we estimate ~62%, yielding positive EV.

Pros

• + Clear experience and win-rate edge for Petkovic
• + Current decimal odds exceed our minimum required for value (1.806 > 1.613)

Cons

• - Both players arrive with recent losses — short-term form is mixed
• - Smaller sample size for Harvison adds variance; upsets remain plausible in ITF matches

Details

We favor Anna Petkovic at the current price because her career experience and higher historical win rate materially tilt the expected outcome versus Isabella Harvison. The market prices are close (Away 1.806 implied ~55.4%, Home 1.877 implied ~53.3%) but our read of the available research gives Petkovic a notably higher true chance (we estimate ~62%). Petkovic has 1,066 career matches with a ~52.4% lifetime win rate and multi-surface experience, while Harvison has a small sample (31 matches, 10-21, ~32.3% win rate) and limited top-level results. Recent results in the research show both players with losses in recent events, so form is mixed, but Petkovic's depth and adaptability reduce matchup variance. There are no injury flags in the provided data and no head-to-head info, so we rely on experience, career win rates, and surface versatility. At our estimated probability (0.62) the current decimal price 1.806 produces positive EV (EV = 0.62*1.806 - 1 ≈ 0.12), so we recommend the away moneyline as a value play.

Key factors

• • Substantial career experience and higher lifetime win rate for Petkovic (559-507 vs Harvison 10-21)
• • Both players show recent losses, but Petkovic's broader multi-surface history reduces matchup risk
• • Market prices understate Petkovic relative edge (implied ~55.4% vs our ~62%)