Highlights

• • Away implied probability 76.3% vs our estimate 35%
• • Home price 3.24 requires only 30.9% true probability to break even

Pros

• + Price on the home player is above our fair-value threshold (min required 2.857)
• + No clear evidence in the provided research that strongly favors the away player

Cons

• - Research is sparse and contains near-identical profiles for both players, increasing uncertainty
• - If undisclosed factors (injury, surface preference, recent form) favor the away player, value may evaporate

Details

We see the market heavily favors the away player at decimal 1.311 (implied 76.3%) while the home player is priced at 3.24 (implied 30.9%). The available research shows nearly identical career records and unclear recent form for both players, offering no clear dominance for the away player to justify a ~76% win probability. Accounting for the bookmaker margin (market sum ~107.2%) and the lack of differentiating information (no injury, clear surface advantage, or H2H edge in the provided data), we conservatively estimate Isabella Svahn's true win probability at 35%. At that probability, the home price of 3.24 yields positive expected value: EV = 0.35 * 3.24 - 1 = 0.134 (13.4% ROI). Because expected_value > 0 at the current home price, we recommend backing the home player.

Key factors

• • Market implies away win probability of ~76.3% which appears inflated given available data
• • Provided player profiles and recent results are almost identical — no clear superiority
• • Bookmaker margin (~7.2%) inflates favorite pricing, creating potential value on the underdog