Iva Ivanovic vs Klara Vaja
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no supplementary information we normalize the market and estimate the home win probability at ~64.7%; at the listed home price (1.44) there is no value, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-normalized home probability ≈0.647
- • Current odds 1.44 produce negative EV (~-0.068) versus our estimate
Pros
- + Favorite price is short and reflects market confidence
- + Normalization of odds reduces bias from bookmaker vig
Cons
- - No independent data to justify boosting the favorite’s win probability above the market-normalized level
- - Small market overround and close margins mean tiny estimation errors would be decisive
Details
We have no external scouting, form, surface, injury, or H2H data, so we proceed conservatively by deriving a market-implied no-vig probability and treating that as our best estimate. The raw market implies 1/1.44 = 0.694 for the home side and 1/2.63 = 0.380 for the away side; normalizing to remove the market overround (≈7.47%) yields a no-vig home probability of ≈0.647, which we adopt as our estimated true probability given the lack of extra information. At that probability the expected value vs the current home decimal price (1.44) is negative (EV ≈ -0.068), so the current price does not offer value. To be profitable on the favorite at these odds we would need a materially higher belief in the home player's win probability than the market-normalized level, which we cannot justify with no additional information.
Key factors
- • No external match, form, surface, injury, or H2H data available — we rely on market-normalized probabilities
- • Market overround ≈7.47% — removing vig gives a no-vig home probability ≈0.647
- • Current home price (1.44) is below our min required odds (1.545) for positive EV