Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 71.9% vs our 73% estimate
• • Small positive expected ROI (~1.5%) at current odds

Pros

• + Clear advantage in match experience and recent results for Michael
• + Odds are slightly better than our fair-price threshold (1.37)

Cons

• - Edge is small — outcome variance and match-level factors can erase EV
• - Limited direct H2H or venue-specific information increases uncertainty

Details

We find small but positive value on Michael Bassem Sobhy (away). Michael has a substantially larger match sample (45 matches, 22-23) and most activity on hard courts, whereas Ivan Gretskiy is 2-8 from 10 matches with poor recent form. The market price of 1.39 implies a win probability of ~71.9%; we estimate Michael's true win probability at 73% based on comparative form, surface alignment, and the clear discrepancy in career results (Michael ~48.9% career win rate vs Ivan 20.0%). At our 73% probability the minimum fair decimal odds are ~1.370, so the current 1.39 offers a small positive edge.

Key factors

• • Michael has larger sample size and near-50% career win rate (22-23 across 45 matches)
• • Ivan's recent form is poor (2-8 across 10 matches) indicating lower win probability
• • Surface alignment favors Michael (research shows Michael's activity on hard courts)