Highlights

• • Safwat's career depth and hard-court experience materially advantage him.
• • Current odds (1.327) slightly exceed our fair odds (1.282), creating a modest edge.

Pros

• + Positive expected value at quoted price (EV ~+3.4% per unit).
• + Clear performance and sample-size advantage for the recommended side.

Cons

• - Edge is small — sensitive to estimation error in true probability.
• - Limited recent-match detail and no H2H information increases uncertainty.

Details

We see Mohamed Safwat as the clear favorite based on experience and career-level evidence. Safwat's career record (621-427 over 1,048 matches) and frequent play on hard courts indicates a substantially higher baseline win probability than Ivan Gretskiy, who has a 2-8 record in 10 career matches and limited wins. Both players have recent activity on hard courts, but Gretskiy's very small sample and poor results give him a low likelihood to upset. The market decimal price for Safwat is 1.327 (implied ~75.3%). Given the experience differential, consistency at higher-level ITF events, and Gretskiy's weak form/sample, we estimate Safwat's true win probability at 78.0%, which implies fair odds of 1.282. At the quoted 1.327 there is a small positive edge (EV ~= +0.034 per unit). We therefore recommend the away moneyline only because current prices exceed our min_required_decimal_odds for positive expected value. We note uncertainty from limited recent-match detail and lack of H2H data, which keeps this a modest-value, medium-risk play.

Key factors

• • Large experience and career-win differential favoring Safwat (621-427 vs 2-8)
• • Both players have recent matches on hard courts; Safwat has sustained performance at higher ITF levels
• • Market-implied probability (75.3%) is slightly lower than our estimated probability (78%), creating small value