Ivan Ivanov vs Emil Ruusuvuori

Highlights

• • Current price on Ivanov (2.14) implies value against our 52% estimate
• • Ruusuvuori looks over-favored by the market given the provided recent-form data

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the quoted 2.14
• + Ivanov's marginally better historical record supports a >50% estimate

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form and small sample sizes, raising variance
• - No H2H or injury detail provided — additional unknowns increase risk

Details

We find value on the home moneyline (Ivan Ivanov). The market prices Emil Ruusuvuori at 1.65 (implied ~60.6%) while Ivanov is 2.14 (implied ~46.7%). Our assessment, based on the provided career and recent-form data, is that both players have similar small-sample records and recent losses, but Ivanov's slightly better win rate (8/18 vs 6/16) and comparable surface experience reduce the gap versus the market-implied favorite. We estimate Ivanov's true win probability at ~52%; at decimal 2.14 that yields EV = 0.52*2.14 - 1 = +0.113 (11.3% ROI). By contrast, Ruusuvuori would need a much higher true probability than his recent record supports to justify the 1.65 price. Given the available quote (2.14), the home side shows positive expected value after adjusting for form, sample-size uncertainty, and lack of decisive H2H information.

Key factors

• • Ivanov's slightly stronger historical win rate (8/18 vs 6/16) within the provided data
• • Both players show recent losses and limited sample sizes, increasing volatility
• • Market strongly favors Ruusuvuori (1.65) which appears overpriced relative to form and sample