Ivan Ivanov vs Otto Virtanen

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Virtanen is ~58.8%; we estimate ~62%
• • Break-even odds given our estimate are 1.613, below the available 1.70

Pros

• + Virtanen's larger match sample and recent activity support a higher true win probability
• + Current price (1.70) exceeds our min-required odds (1.613), yielding positive EV

Cons

• - Edge is modest (≈5.4% ROI) — susceptible to variance and limited data depth
• - No head-to-head or injury information available; unknown match-day variables could flip the edge

Details

We view Otto Virtanen as the value side at the quoted away price (1.70). The research shows Virtanen has a far larger match sample (50 matches, 24-26) and more recent activity through early September, while Ivan Ivanov has a much smaller sample (18 matches, 8-10) and several clear recent losses. Both players have experience on hard courts, but Virtanen's deeper match experience and overall win volume suggest a higher true win chance than the market-implied probability of ~58.8% (1/1.70). We estimate Virtanen's true win probability at ~62%, which makes the current 1.70 price slightly favorable (min required decimal odds for break-even given our estimate is 1.613). The edge is modest (EV ≈ +5.4% on a 1-unit stake) and relies on the quality gap implied by experience and recent form; there is no H2H or injury information to contradict this, so we recommend the away side only because expected_value > 0 at the available price.

Key factors

• • Virtanen has a substantially larger competitive sample (50 matches) and a better absolute win volume than Ivanov
• • Ivanov's recent results show more losses and limited activity, indicating poorer recent form
• • Both players have hard-court experience, favoring a straightforward comparison without a strong surface bias