Iveta Dapkute vs Sofiia Nagornaia
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The research does not support the heavy market favorite; Nagornaia at 3.64 represents clear value versus our 45% win estimate, producing a high positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market-implied home probability (~81%) appears unsupported by the supplied profiles
- • At our 45% estimate, away at 3.64 yields ~0.638 EV per unit staked
Pros
- + Large discrepancy between market price and assessed probability offers significant value
- + Both players' publicly available form is similar, reducing evidence for a heavy favorite
Cons
- - Our probability estimate is conservative but still subjective given limited data; missing context could justify market pricing
- - Small-sample records and ITF volatility increase outcome variance
Details
We see the market pricing Iveta Dapkute as a very strong favorite at 1.234 (implied ~81.0%) while Sofiia Nagornaia is 3.64 (implied ~27.5%). The provided player data shows virtually identical career spans, match totals and recent form (both 10-21 across 31 matches with similar recent results), so there is no evidence in the research to justify an 81% probability for the home player. Conservatively we assign Sofiia Nagornaia a 45.0% win probability (Iveta Dapkute 55.0%) based on parity in the available profiles and no disqualifying injury or surface advantage noted. At that estimate the fair decimal line for Nagornaia would be 2.222; the current available price of 3.64 offers substantial overlay. Calculation: EV = 0.45 * 3.64 - 1 = 0.638 (63.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Because the expected value is strongly positive vs the quoted price, we recommend the away (Nagornaia).
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical recorded form and career stats in the provided research
- • Market implies an outsized probability for the home player (81%) not supported by the supplied data
- • No injuries, H2H or surface advantage shown in the research to justify the large favorite