Iveta Dapkute vs Marika Jones

Highlights

• • Dapkute's empirical win rate ≈32.3% → suggests away win chance ≈67.7%
• • Current away odds 9.0 imply only ~11.1% chance — large value gap

Pros

• + Very large calculated positive EV at the quoted away price
• + Recommendation grounded in observed match record and recent form of the favorite

Cons

• - No information provided on Marika Jones — true matchup strength is unknown
• - Extreme market skew could reflect missing context (injury, walkover, seeding) not present in research

Details

We base our model on the only available player data: Iveta Dapkute's career record (10–21 over 31 matches, win rate ≈ 32.3%) and recent poor form. There is no performance data for Marika Jones in the provided research, so a pragmatic, conservative estimate is to use Dapkute's observed win-rate as the best proxy for her true chance here (≈0.323). That implies Marika Jones' probability to win ≈ 0.677. The market prices are heavily skewed toward Dapkute (home 1.06 implied ≈94.3%), while the away price of 9.0 implies ≈11.1% — a clear mismatch. Using our estimated true probability for the away side (0.677) and the quoted decimal odds 9.0, the expected value is strongly positive (EV = 0.677 * 9.0 - 1 = 5.097). Because the market implied probability for the away player is far lower than our estimate, this represents a large value opportunity if our assumptions hold. We flag material uncertainty due to missing opponent data and tournament/context specifics, so the recommendation reflects value but also elevated informational risk.

Key factors

• • Dapkute's career win rate is low (10–21, ≈32.3%) and recent form shows losses
• • Market price heavily favors the home player (1.06) despite weak form data
• • No opponent (Marika Jones) data in the research — increases uncertainty but implies market mispricing