Highlights

• • Alejandro's much larger match sample and recent clay win support favoritism
• • Market-implied probability (70.9%) is slightly below our estimated 73% true probability

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current common prices (small but real edge)
• + Advantage reinforced by experience and recent clay-level results

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to small probability shifts and limited direct H2H data
• - Low-level events have higher variance and lineup/condition uncertainty

Details

We estimate Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa is the stronger clay-court player based on a much larger sample (177 matches, 89-88) versus Izan Almazan Valiente's limited record (27 matches, 10-17) and weaker recent form. The market prices the away player at 1.41 (implied win probability ~70.9%). Given Alejandro's greater experience, recent win at an M15 clay event, and Izan's string of losses on clay-level events, we assess a true win probability slightly above the market's implied probability. Using an estimated true probability of 73.0% versus the market 70.9% implies a small positive edge (EV = 0.73 * 1.41 - 1 ≈ 0.0293). The advantage is modest and exposed to variance (low-level events, limited direct-comparison data), but at the quoted 1.41 there is value.

Key factors

• • Significant experience gap: Alejandro 177 matches vs Izan 27
• • Both play clay, but Alejandro has more consistent results at lower-tier clay events
• • Izan's recent form shows multiple losses; Alejandro has a recent M15 clay win