J J. Bianchi/D. Milavsky vs P. Harper/J. Monday
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on the home doubles at 2.50 based on a conservative 42% win probability estimate, yielding about a 5% expected return.
Highlights
- • Home implied chance at 2.50 (40%) is below our conservative estimate (42%).
- • Minimum fair decimal odds required for home are 2.381; current 2.50 exceeds that threshold.
Pros
- + Market appears to over-favor the away side with limited justification.
- + Available odds (2.50) provide a measurable positive EV against our conservative model.
Cons
- - Very limited match-specific information (surface, recent form, injuries) increases uncertainty.
- - Edge is small (5% EV) and sensitive to small changes in true probability.
Details
We assume limited pre-match information and adopt a conservative true win probability for the home pairing (J J. Bianchi/D. Milavsky) of 42%. The market is pricing the home side at decimal 2.50 (implied 40.0%) while the away pairing is heavily favored at 1.48 (implied ~67.6%). Given the lack of corroborating information to justify such a strong lean toward the away team, we judge the market is slightly overpricing the favorite. Using our 42% estimate the fair odds for the home side are 1/0.42 = 2.381; the available market price of 2.50 therefore offers positive expected value. EV calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.42 * 2.50 - 1 = +0.05 (5% ROI). We remain conservative because of unknown surface, form and injury data, but the current home quote contains small but real value versus our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Market implied probability for away (1.48) looks high given no supporting information
- • Conservative true probability estimate (42%) gives home a slight edge in value at 2.50
- • Unknown surface, form and injury info increases outcome variance — we keep probability conservative