J. Aney/Q. Gleason vs G. Olmos/A. Sutjiadi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: with conservative 72% true probability for the away pair, current odds of 1.33 produce a negative expected value, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for away team: ~75.2%
- • Our conservative estimate: 72.0% — requires odds ≥1.389 to be profitable
Pros
- + Favorite is legitimately strong per market pricing
- + Low variance decision: avoid a short-price favorite with negative EV
Cons
- - Potential overlooked edges if additional positive intel existed (injuries to favorite, bad conditions)
- - Small margin between our estimate and market means outcome is sensitive to new information
Details
We do not recommend a wager here. With no external scouting data available, we adopt conservative assumptions and treat the market as broadly informative. The book prices imply the away pair (Olmos/Sutjiadi) is a strong favorite at decimal 1.33 (implied win probability ~75.2%); the home pair (Aney/Gleason) is priced at 3.10 (implied ~32.3%). After accounting for typical uncertainty in doubles matchups, surface/venue variability, and our conservative estimate that the away pair's true win probability is roughly 72.0%, the market price is slightly shorter (1.33) than the break-even price we would need (≈1.389) to offer positive expectation. Therefore the favorite offers negative expected value at current odds and we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Market strongly favors the away pair (implied probability ~75.2%)
- • No external recent form, injury, or H2H data available — we apply conservative probability estimates
- • Small margin between our estimated probability (72.0%) and market-implied probability makes the favorite short of value