J. Aney/Q. Gleason vs S. Santamaria/Qianhui Tang

Highlights

• • Market is tight; small probability edges matter
• • Tang's poor recent results tilt the matchup toward the home team

Pros

• + Home price (1.90) exceeds our minimum required odds (1.818) for a positive EV
• + Concrete negative signal from opponent's recent form supports a home tilt

Cons

• - Research is limited to one player (Qianhui Tang); we lack doubles-specific data and info on the home pairing
• - Edge is small (≈4.5%) and sensitive to probability estimation errors

Details

The market prices are very close (home 1.90 implied ~52.6%, away 1.84 implied ~54.3%). The only concrete data available in the research is Qianhui Tang's weak singles record (10-21) and poor recent results, which suggests the away side's implied edge may be overstated. With limited information about the rest of the pairing or specific doubles form, we conservatively downgrade the away team's win chance and assign the home team a higher true probability (55%). At the offered home price of 1.90 this produces a small positive edge (EV ~ +4.5%). Given the tight market and the clear negative signal from Tang's form, the home price represents value versus our estimated probability.

Key factors

• • Qianhui Tang's recent form and career record are weak (10-21), lowering the away team's expected strength
• • Market is pricing the match very tightly (1.90 vs 1.84), so a small adjustment to true probability creates value
• • Lack of available doubles-specific data on both pairings increases uncertainty; we take a conservative estimate favoring home