J. Belgraver/K. Cross vs A. Santos/A. Voloshchuk

Highlights

• • Home priced 1.20 (implied 83.3%); our estimate 78.0%
• • Breakeven fair odds for home are ~1.282; market is shorter at 1.20

Pros

• + Heavy favorite status is plausible given available info
• + Low upside required from new information to flip value (small probability gap)

Cons

• - Offered favorite odds are shorter than our conservative fair price — negative EV
• - No match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify deviating from conservative priors

Details

Market odds imply the home pair J. Belgraver/K. Cross has a very high probability (1.20 decimal => 83.3% implied). With no external form, surface, injury or H2H data available we apply conservative assumptions and estimate the true home-win probability at 78.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.282; the offered 1.20 is shorter than fair, producing negative expected value. Calculations: implied market P(home)=0.833, our P(home)=0.78, min profitable odds = 1/0.78 = 1.282. EV at current home odds (1.20) = 0.78*1.20 - 1 = -0.064 (loss of ~6.4% per unit). The away price (4.10) would require an estimated win probability >= 24.39% to breakeven; our conservative away estimate is 22.0% (1 - 0.78), so that side is also negative EV. Given the absence of additional information and the small gap between our probability and the market's implied probability, there is no value at current quoted prices and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external form/injury/H2H/surface data available — using conservative priors
• • Market implies home win probability (83.3%) which is higher than our conservative estimate (78%)
• • Difference between fair odds (1.282) and offered odds (1.20) produces negative EV