J. Belgraver/K. Cross vs T. Franco Dias/P. Isakova

Highlights

• • Favourite fair price at our estimate ≈ 1.053; market at 1.03 → negative EV
• • Underdog would require odds near 20.0 to be attractive under our assumptions

Pros

• + Conservative probability reduces risk of overestimating favourite strength
• + Clear threshold provided for when this market would become +EV (≥1.053 for favourite)

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data means assumptions may be imprecise
• - Very short favourite price makes any misestimation of probability materially impactful

Details

We estimate this pairing is heavily in favour of the home pair and, with no external data available, we adopt a conservative true win probability of 95% for J. Belgraver/K. Cross. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.053 (1 / 0.95). The available market price for the favourite is 1.03, which implies an expected return of 0.95 * 1.03 - 1 = -0.0215 (a -2.15% ROI) — negative EV. The away side at 12.0 would require a true win probability of at least 1/12 ≈ 8.33% to break even; given our conservative estimate that the away team's win chance is ~5% (complement of the favourite estimate), the away selection is also negative EV (0.05 * 12 - 1 = -0.4). Because neither side shows positive expected value at the quoted prices, we do not recommend a bet. To be profitable on the favourite at our estimated probability the market would need to offer at least ~1.053; alternatively a much longer price on the underdog (≈20.0) would be required if our probability split is accurate.

Key factors

• • Extremely short market price for the favourite (1.03) leaves essentially no margin for profit
• • No external data available; we apply a conservative 95% true-win estimate for the favourite
• • Under-dog odds (12.0) are far below the level needed to compensate for their assumed low win chance