Highlights

• • Away implied probability: 15.4%; our estimate: 18.0%
• • Positive EV at current widely-available odds (6.5)

Pros

• + Clear mathematical edge versus the market price
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces positive EV

Cons

• - Very limited match-specific information increases model uncertainty
• - Underdog outcomes in tennis are high variance — losses are frequent even with positive EV

Details

The bookmaker price for the away side (6.5 decimal) implies a win probability of about 15.4%. Given the absence of specific injury, surface or form information and the typical variance in lower-tier/local doubles events, we take a conservative but skeptical view of the heavy favorite pricing. We estimate the away team has an ~18.0% chance to win—higher than the market-implied 15.4%—which creates positive expected value. EV calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.18 * 6.5 - 1 = 0.17 (17% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The home price (1.10) implies ~90.9% and offers no value against our estimate because it would require a true home win probability >90.9%, which is implausible without additional confirming information.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied away probability (15.4%) vs our conservative estimate (18.0%)
• • High variance in lower-tier/local doubles events increases upset likelihood
• • No confirmed injuries or additional information to justify the heavy favorite price