J. Bruce-Smith/T. Papac vs A. Mehrotra/S. Ryan Ziegann

Highlights

• • Home implied fair price (based on our 41% estimate) = 2.439 — current 2.43 is slightly short of this
• • Both sides produce negative EV at available odds (home ≈ -0.37% ROI, away ≈ -11.5% ROI)

Pros

• + Conservative, data-driven stance reduces likelihood of hidden downside from unknown factors
• + Clear numeric thresholds provided for when the home price would become attractive (≥ 2.439)

Cons

• - No live form/injury/H2H info — our probability estimate is necessarily coarse
• - Small model edge could be overcome by unobserved variables (surface preference, recent partnership form)

Details

We estimate the home pair J. Bruce-Smith/T. Papac has roughly a 41% chance to win (p = 0.41) based on conservative assumptions in the absence of form, surface or injury data. At the quoted home decimal price of 2.43 the fair break-even price for that probability is 1 / 0.41 = 2.439. The market is pricing the away team as the clear favorite (1.50, implied 66.7%), but our win-probability split (41%/59%) implies the favorite is slightly overrated and the home side is slightly underpriced but not enough to create positive expected value: EV_home = 0.41 * 2.43 - 1 = -0.0037 (≈ -0.37% ROI). The away side is worse value: EV_away = 0.59 * 1.50 - 1 = -0.115 (≈ -11.5% ROI). Given both sides produce negative EV at current widely-available prices, we recommend taking no bet.

Key factors

• • No available form, surface or injury data — we apply conservative neutral priors
• • Market strongly favors the away team (1.50) but implied probability appears slightly overstated versus conservative estimate
• • Home price (2.43) is marginally below our fair odds (2.439), producing a very small negative EV