Highlights

• • Home implied probability 60.6% vs our estimate 58.0%
• • Required odds to justify wagering on home are ≥ 1.724; current is 1.65

Pros

• + Home is market favorite — could be correct if unseen factors exist
• + If new positive information arrives (injury to opponents, favorable surface), value could appear

Cons

• - Current price (1.65) is below our conservative fair odds (1.724)
• - No reliable data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H to justify overruling market

Details

We have no external form, surface or injury information, so we apply a conservative estimate. Market decimal odds: Home 1.65 (implied 60.6%), Away 2.12 (implied 47.2%); market contains ~7.7% vig. Given no additional evidence and the small favorite status, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 58.0% (0.58) — a modest edge below the market-implied 60.6%. At our estimate the break-even decimal odds are 1.724 (1 / 0.58). The current home price of 1.65 produces EV = 0.58 * 1.65 - 1 = -0.043 (about -4.3% ROI). Because expected value at the quoted prices is negative for both sides under conservative assumptions, we do not recommend a bet. If additional positive information (injury to opponents, strong recent form, favorable surface) becomes available raising our true probability above ~60.6%, a back of the home side would become attractive.

Key factors

• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — must be conservative
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.65) is ~60.6%, above our conservative estimate
• • Book margin (~7.7%) inflates required edge to find value