J. Duerst/N. Vargova vs S. Lazar/S. Ogescu

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (96.15%) > our estimate (92%) — no value on favorite
• • Away needs >9.09% true probability to be +EV at 11.0 — unlikely under conservative view

Pros

• + Market likely reflects strong favorite status or booking information
• + Very short price on favorite minimizes variance if favored outcome occurs

Cons

• - Price on favorite is too short to offer positive expected return given uncertainty
• - Lack of external data increases model risk and chance of mispricing

Details

We see an extreme market price: the home pair is priced at 1.04 (implied ~96.15%) while the away pair is 11.0 (implied ~9.09%). With no external form, injury, surface or H2H data available, we take a conservative estimate. We estimate the home team win probability at 92% — high but below the market-implied 96.15% — which produces a negative expected value at the quoted home price. The away side would need a true probability above ~9.09% to be profitable at 11.0; under conservative assumptions we assign the away team a win probability well below that threshold. Given these estimates, neither side offers positive EV at current prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Extreme favorite pricing leaves little to no margin for value
• • No independent data on form, injuries, or H2H — must be conservative
• • Doubles outcomes can be volatile despite heavy favorites