J. Graca/D. Morais vs M. Fitriadi/C. Rungkat

Highlights

• • Favourite implied probability: ~78.13% (1.28)
• • Our conservative estimate: 75% → market price is too short for value

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies the strong favourite; if additional information supported >78.1% true chance this would be valuable
• + Conservative stance reduces risk of overconfidence when data is lacking

Cons

• - No available research on team form, surface, injuries, or head-to-head to justify a higher true probability
• - Both sides show negative EV at current prices based on our conservative estimates

Details

We have no external data on form, surface, injuries, or head-to-head, so we take a conservative approach. The market strongly favours the away side at 1.28 (implied ~78.13%). Conservatively we estimate the away team’s true win probability at 75% (0.75) because absent supporting research we avoid overstating certainty. At that probability the expected return on the favourite is negative: EV = 0.75 * 1.28 - 1 = -0.04 (–4% per unit staked). The home side (complementary 25% win chance) also shows negative EV at its price: 0.25 * 3.4 - 1 = -0.15. Therefore there is no positive EV at current prices and we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external research available on form, injuries, surface or H2H — high uncertainty
• • Market heavily favours the away team (1.28) implying ~78.1% chance
• • Our conservative estimated true probability (75%) is below the market-implied threshold for positive EV (78.125%)