Highlights

• • Estimated true probability (98.5%) slightly above market-implied (98.04%)
• • EV is positive but very small (~0.47% ROI)

Pros

• + Market price indicates a clear heavy favorite, consistent with our conservative assessment
• + Slight positive expected value at current odds

Cons

• - Edge is extremely small and would vanish with minor changes to the probability estimate
• - Limited/no research data available; unknown factors (injury, form, pairing changes) could flip the value

Details

The market price (home 1.02) implies an approximate 98.04% chance. With no external information returned by research, we proceed conservatively but note the market is signaling a very heavy favorite. We estimate the true probability of J. Hsu/D. Sakellaridis winning at 98.5% (0.985) given the extremely short home price and lack of contrary signals. At that probability the expected value of backing the home side at 1.02 is small but positive (EV = 0.985 * 1.02 - 1 ≈ 0.0047), meaning the book slightly underprices this outcome relative to our estimate. The edge is minimal and sensitive to small changes in our probability estimate (the break-even decimal price is 1.015). Given the paucity of research data and inherent upset risk in doubles, we treat this as a very low-margin value bet rather than a strong recommendation.

Key factors

• • Current market implies home win probability ~98.04% (1.02 decimal)
• • We conservatively estimate home win probability slightly higher at 98.5%
• • Small positive edge but very low margin and sensitive to model error