Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.70) = 58.8%; our conservative estimate = 56.0%
• • EV at current home odds = -0.048 (negative), so no value

Pros

• + Home is market favourite, suggesting better perceived chances
• + Odds are within typical ranges for a clear favourite in doubles

Cons

• - Current home price (1.70) does not exceed our minimum required odds (1.786) for positive EV
• - No match-specific information available increases model uncertainty and variance

Details

We have no external match data (form, injuries, H2H or surface specifics) and must therefore make conservative assumptions. The market prices show the home side as a clear favourite at 1.70 (implied 58.8%). Under conservative assessment we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 56.0%, which is below the break-even probability (≈58.82%) required for positive EV at 1.70. Using our probability, the expected value at the current home price is negative (EV = 0.56 * 1.70 - 1 = -0.048). The away price (2.06) would require a true probability >48.54% to be valuable; we judge the away team is less likely than that threshold given the market favours the home side, so we do not see value on the underdog either. With limited information and the market already pricing the favorite more richly than our conservative estimate, we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — we adopt a conservative baseline estimate
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.70) is ~58.8%; our estimate (56.0%) is lower, yielding negative EV
• • Underdog price (2.06) would require >48.54% true win chance to be profitable; current market favours the home side so that probability is unlikely